Category Archives: Weather-Trade

Weather Trading – 12.05.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

Portfolio:

• 20 MW front quarter
• 60 MW front month

Weather-trading and hedging: short-range

(Trading will be done stepwise and per step, we need profit on each step and a confirmed WRM+PV/Jet analysis.…

Weather Trading – 07.05.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

Portfolio:

• 20 MW front quarter
• 60 MW front month

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • Looks to be more WDC into week 19, and the CWW risk fades off

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • We are moving away from a lasting stable CWW pattern and dry weeks can offset wet weeks

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • The CWW turn the last days shows WRMe-CWW effect => thus WRM(e)-WDC into next week will shift forecasts less CWW to WDC

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Models overestimate inflow at the start of the melt next week
  • Cold night temps hold mountain inflow lower than expected
  • Low wind gives hydro producers space to produce unregulated
  • High DEU prices will give high export of unregulated production

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather Trading -05.05.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

Portfolio:

• 20 MW front quarter
• 60 MW front month

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • Looks to be a modest bull signal into the week but we are not 100% on a solid WDC path
  • MJO, WRM and PV-Greenland part is a risk for change in forecats and less stable pattern
  • Towrds Friday we could see stronger CWW forecasts, but the volatility between runs will be large

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • May has the possibility to see solid CWW periods as it looks now
  • Statistics show that May often trends stronger CWW later into May, and can have a “bull” start
  • But, the start of week 19 shows stronger WRM-WDC => if that fails to set up a solid PV/Jet-WDC setup we will see some weeks of modest CWW

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • The large spread between runs and WRM effect does point towards moderate to high risk
  • Thus, a stable WDC path in forecasts is less likely

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Into the week we see bull support from low inflow and temps, and the windy period looks to have a limited impact on water values
  • DEU sees strong prices
  • Next week rising inflow will be the first “test” on the strength of water values for weeks

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather-Trading – 03.05.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

Portfolio:

• 20 MW front quarter
• 60 MW front month

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • Looks to be a modest bull signal into the week but we are not 100% on a solid WDC path
  • MJO, WRM and PV-Greenland part is a risk for change in forecats and less stable pattern

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • May has the possibility to see solid CWW periods as it looks now
  • Statistics show that May often trends stronger CWW later into May, and can have a “bull” start

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • The large spread between runs and WRM effect do point towards moderate to high risk

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Into the week we see bull support from low inflow and temps, and the windy period looks to have a limited impact on water values
  • DEU sees strong prices

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather Trading – 28.04.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

Portfolio:

• 20 MW front quarter
• 60 MW front month

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • Uncertain effect of the WRM in week 17, stronger indications of WRM-WDC effect week 18 and into week 19
  • MJO also supports a WRM-WDC effect into week 18-19
  • Thus, the PV-trough seen between 05-12 of May is a CWW risk for NC+DEU hat will be partly observed
  • Later into week 19 and up to week 22 there is a stronger CWW risk

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • We see a May-2015-2019 CWW setup and thus significant precipitation risk with wind both in NC+DEU
  • Into week 18 this setup must be called off and solid evidence for a shift to May-WDC must be seen for long/bull positions during week 18-19

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Predicting stable weather trends in April-May is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
  • Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used
  • For now, the highest risk solid WDC forecasts is into week 18 and start week 19 but this needs confirmation in PV setup

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Lower temps holding inflow low and consumption high, low NC+DEU wind up to 5 of May is a bull support
  • But the CWW period between 05-12 of May will cause significant higher Hydbal, temps looks to hold inflow low
  • Thus, Hybdal risk for June is higher

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather trading – 20.04.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

Portfolio:

• 20 MW front quarter
• 60 MW front month

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • Mixed into the week then bull week 17

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • A WDC path could cause evaporation and thus Hydbal could come down faster into May if we see a solid WDC setup
  • In case of a shift back to CWW into May, we could see significant precipitation and wind as seen in May 2015
  • Late May and into June sees a CWW risk, up to then WDC…

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Predicting stable weather trends in April-May is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
  • Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used
  • But, this week WRM(e)-CWW looks weak and has a shifting effect, next week more WDC…

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Lower temps holding inflow low and consumption high, just a short peak of high NC+DEU wind, less wet and windy forecasts do point towards bull support into week 17

• NC SYS price vs.

…