Category Archives: Weather-Trade

Weather Trading – 16.04.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

Portfolio:

• 20 MW front quarter
• 60 MW front month

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • Bull for week 15, but suggest profit-taking before week 16 since we don’t see a solid FSW and WRM shows a CWW risk

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • May can see both solid WDC and CWW periods
  • As it looks now there is a mixed outlook but the potential for solid WDC fades off and we are looking at possibilities for many strong observed CWW periods

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Predicting stable weather trends in April-May is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
  • Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used for larger volumes
  • Weekend risk is higher

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Lower temps holding inflow low and consumption high, low NC+DEU wind, less wet and windy forecasts do point towards bull support into week 15, possible 16
  • But onwards there is several WRM(e)-CWW periods and thus we could see rising Hydbal and inflow (rain) into May that will cut off the bull support seen now

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather Trading – 13.04.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

Portfolio:

• 20 MW front quarter
• 60 MW front month

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • Bull for week 15, but suggest profit-taking before week 16

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • A WDC path could cause evaporation and thus Hydbal could come down faster into May if we see a solid WDC setup
  • In case of a shift back to CWW into May, we could see significant precipitation and wind as seen in May 2015
  • We need proof of FSW strength and effect on the surface before we can set the effect into May
    • => There looks to be stronger CWW periods into May
    • => Strong FSW late May is likely and thus not that accumulated CWW, but shifting onwards…

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Predicting stable weather trends in April-May is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
  • Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used
  • For now, the highest risk solid WDC forecasts is into the second part of the week
    • => Use bull runs to close positions

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Lower temps holding inflow low and consumption high, low NC+DEU wind, less wet and windy forecasts do point towards bull support into week 15, possible 16
    • => WRM shifts so week 16 has too high CWW risk in forecasts

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather-Trading – 12.04.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

Portfolio:

• 20 MW front quarter
• 60 MW front month

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • Bull for week 15, but suggest profit-taking before week 16 if no FSW

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • A WDC path could cause evaporation and thus Hydbal could come down faster into May if we see a solid WDC setup
  • In case of a shift back to CWW into May, we could see significant precipitation and wind as seen in May 2015
  • We need proof of FSW strength and effect on the surface before we can set the effect into May

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Predicting stable weather trends in April-May is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
  • Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used
  • For now, the highest risk solid WDC forecasts is into the second part of the week

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Lower temps holding inflow low and consumption high, low NC+DEU wind, less wet and windy forecasts do point towards bull support into week 15, possible 16

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather trading – 09.04.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • Bull for week 15, but suggest profit-taking before week 16 if no FSW

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • A WDC path could cause evaporation and thus Hydbal could come down faster into May if we see a solid WDC setup
  • In case of a shift back to CWW into May, we could see significant precipitation and wind as seen in May 2015

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Predicting stable weather trends in April-May is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
  • Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used
  • As for now, a “stable” WDC path is not likely before Thursday
  • However, into late week 15, there is potential for a fallback to CWW
  • If we see proof for lasting WDC setup in WRM+PV/Jet into week 15 and 16 there is a strong bull weather period coming up

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Lower temps holding inflow low and consumption high, less wet and windy forecasts do point towards bull support into week 14 and 15, possible 16

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather-Trade – 07.04.2021

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • There is a CWW potential into the week before we see a shift to high-pressure setup in forecasts into late week 14 and week 15

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • April and May do show potential for stronger CWW periods than March during low-pressure regimes
  • As for now, there is not stable WDC setup seen
  • Into week 14 we could get proof of an FSW and its effect
  • No solid FSW and bull weather thinking must take place over shorter periods since a fallback to wet and windy forecasts are high

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Predicting stable weather trends in April is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
  • Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used
  • As for now, a “stable” WDC path is not likely before Thursday
  • However, into late week 15 there is potential for a fallback to CWW
  • If we see proof for lasting WDC setup into week 15 and 16 there is a bull weather period coming up

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Lower temps holding inflow low and consumption high, less wet and windy forecasts do point towards bull support into week 14 and 15, possible 16

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather-Trading – 06.04.2021 at 10:32

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • There is a CWW potential into the week before we see a shift to high-pressure setup in forecasts into late week 14 and week 15

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Je

  • April and May do show potential for stronger CWW periods than March during low-pressure regimes
  • As for now, there is not stable WDC setup seen
  • Into week 14 we could get proof of an FSW and its effect
  • No solid FSW and bull weather thinking must take place over shorter periods since a fallback to wet and windy forecasts are high

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Predicting stable weather trends in April is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
  • Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used
  • As for now, a “stable” WDC path is not likely before Thursday
  • However, into late week 15 there is potential for a fallback to CWW
  • If we see proof for lasting WDC setup into week 15 and 16 there is a bull weather period coming up

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • If we see a WRM-CWW effect into the week the outlook will be bearish
  • Cold temps limits inflow but the wind is a bearish risk if we see a new solid CWW period developing for NC + DEU
  • Also, forecasted Hydbal will into late week 14 be at a level that will adjust down fundamental market models
  • But a shift into WDC for late week 14 and onwards is a possibility for bull outlook

• NC SYS price vs.

…