Category Archives: Weather-Trade

Weather-Trading at 17.03.2021 at 13:10

Main outlook next 30 days

• Shifting between WDC and CWW/WWW forecasts
• Accum not that wet and windy in March, higher CWW risk for April
• Bearish positions must take place in shorter periods while bull positions do show higher confidence

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • WRM(e)-CWW effect is seen in the last runs and thus looks to effect forecasts into week 11
  • WRMe-WDC will most likely calm forecasts over the weekend even if WRM supports a lasting CWW setup

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Jet

  • Strong PV, PV core west, and WRM-CWW signals suggest accumulated CWW and that massive low-pressure can develop and thus we are facing the outer edge of the CWW-statistic
  • Thus, March and April could see a surplus of 9-11 Twh precipitation if PV stays west
  • However, its not expected to be stronger observed WWW/CWW until April limiting the bearish effect of WWW for now

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Too strong WRMe-WDC risk over the weekend suggest closing positions
  • The WRMe-WDC response vs market outlook within Friday will determine how the weekend price-risk is
  • It looks like a bull development later into the week and thus the risk could be bearish…

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Into next week there is a bearish risk with both observed WWW and also WWW forecasts
  • This supports higher inflow and hydbal and thus lower water values into week 12
  • But, the WRMe-WDC outlook and the normal-period suggest that a solid lasting WWW setup is less likely

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather-Trading – 16.03.2021 at 10:45

Main outlook next 30 days

• The shift into a CWW is seen, periods of WRMe-WDC will calm forecasts down
• Normally March-April is moderate WWW or CDC but for now, a rising Hydbal into April is likely
• SRA:
  • Anomaly strong PV and WRM signals suggest solid observed CWW low pressures into late March and the first part of April is likely
  • => As long as PV-core stays west closer to Greenland this is likely

Short-range (front months:1+2 and front Quarter)

• WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

  • WRM(e)-CWW effect is seen in the last runs and thus looks to effect forecasts into week 11
  • WRMe-WDC will most likely calm forecasts over the weekend even if WRM supports a lasting CWW setup

• Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Jet

  • Strong PV, PV core west, and WRM-CWW signals suggest accumulated CWW and that massive low-pressure can develop and thus we are facing the outer edge of the CWW-statistic
  • Thus, March and April could see a surplus of 10-14 Twh precipitation if PV stays west

• Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

  • Too strong WRMe-WDC risk over the weekend suggest closing positions
  • The WRMe-WDC response vs market outlook within Friday will determine how the weekend price-risk is

• Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

  • Into next week there is a bearish risk with both observed WWW and also WWW forecasts
  • This supports higher inflow and hydbal and thus lower water values
  • But, the WRMe-WDC outlook and the normal-period suggest that a solid lasting WWW setup is less likely

• NC SYS price vs.

…

Weather – Trading at 15.03.2021 at 08:45

Main outlook

The “Weather-Trading” strategy will be on stable, lasting C(W)DC or W(C)WW periods that have an impact on NC and preferably DEU over 1-3 weeks.…

Weather-Trading – 10.03.2021 at 14:18

Main outlook

The “Weather-Trading” strategy will be on stable, lasting CDC or WWW periods that have an impact on NC and preferably DEU over 1-3 weeks.…

Weather-Trading – 10.03.2021 at 22:29

Main outlook

The “Weather-Trading” strategy will be on stable, lasting CDC or WWW periods that have an impact on NC and preferably DEU over 1-3 weeks.…

Weather-Trading – 10.03.2021 at 10:02

Main outlook

The “Weather-Trading” strategy will be on stable, lasting CDC or WWW periods that have an impact on NC and preferably DEU over 1-3 weeks.…