One platform · one signal · one conviction language
See the next six weeks before the market prices them.
DIANA is the digital fusion of PhD energy-meteorology and 24 years of institutional trading — a daily research engine that reads weather regimes the way a senior desk does, and tells you how much to trust the call. Delivered every morning, before markets open.

The edge, in one line
+22–26pp
Direction edge over ECMWF · Weeks 4–5

73% High-conviction hit rate
13 European energy markets
45yr ERA5 reanalysis, queryable
Direction accuracy on observed weather · multi-year out-of-sample validation vs the ECMWF energy-weather forecast.

The proof, in one chart
DIANA pulls ahead at the horizons where positions are built.
Direction accuracy on observed weather, head-to-head against the ECMWF energy-weather forecast over multi-year validation. EC owns Week 1. By Week 2 its ensemble has converged toward climatology. Weeks 3–6 — where the multi-week trade is built — are where DIANA’s edge opens up.

DIANAECMWF energy forecast

61%
67%
66%
54%
61%
59%
56%
57%
50% — coin flip
42%
36%
31%
29%
W1
−6pp
W2
+11pp
W3
+19pp
W4
+22pp
W5
+26pp
W6
+28pp
Where the trade lives · W3 to W6

45yr
Backtested weather
13
European markets
+22–26pp
Edge over ECMWF · W4 / W5
73%
High-tier hit rate

Why it beats consensus
A weather model can’t beat ECMWF. A regime engine can.
DIANA doesn’t try to out-forecast the ensemble at Week 1 — nobody does. It plays a different game past Week 2, where the ensemble has nothing left to say.

01 · The problem
ECMWF fades to average
Past Week 2 the ensemble spreads toward climatology. On direction, the energy-weather forecast drifts to a coin flip — exactly when the multi-week position is being built.

02 · The method
DIANA reads the regime
45 years of ERA5 reanalysis, pattern-matched. DIANA finds which historical regimes today resembles and projects the W0–W6 distribution — signal that holds where the ensemble has given up.

03 · The output
Conviction, not narrative
Every call ships with direction, magnitude and a High / Medium / Low conviction tier. Size up on High, lean on Medium, stand down on Low — decided before the week starts.

Conviction is the product
Hit rate climbs with the tier.
High
73%
Med
65%
Low
61%
Direction accuracy by tier · 5-year out-of-sample backtest (n = 8,439). The tiering is the trade: you know the odds before you put the position on.

On the weeks that move books
+43pp
Week 3 · regime-change weeks
DIANA 70% · ECMWF 27% on the extreme, regime-change weeks — the ones that actually move a book. That’s the tail; the chart above is the all-weeks average (+19pp at W3). The edge is widest exactly when it’s worth the most.

What DIANA stands for
Digital · Intelligent · Artificial · Numerical · Advisor

D
Digital
I
Intelligent
A
Artificial
N
Numerical
A
Advisor

Digital
 45 years of ERA5 reanalysis — every storm, ridge and vortex on record — queryable on demand.
Intelligent
 Pattern matching that reads regimes the way a senior meteorologist does — faster, and on every market at once.
Artificial
 Self-calibrating each morning — yesterday’s observation feeds today’s conviction tier.
Numerical
 Direction, magnitude and HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW conviction — not narrative, not vibes.
Advisor
 Six connected reports, R0–R5 — one signal language across trader, hedger, planner and analyst.

The daily chain
Six reports. One conviction language. Every morning.
Each report answers one question and hands its output to the next. Open the chain and the desk has a complete view — not six vendors to reconcile.
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Status
The New Normal
Analogs
Hydrology
DIANA Weather
Trade
Pipeline health
DIANA analogue-year fit
Best-match years
Reservoir trajectory
W1 to W6
Synthesis · in build

Ask DIANA
Six reports — and a chat to query them all.
Ask any market, week or driver in plain English. DIANA answers with the number and the reasoning — then opens the report it came from.
● Ask DIANA
Quick — why is NP power bullish in W3?
A blocking high parks over Scandinavia — your Select analogs ran ~16% below-normal wind (a wind drought). Thin generation lifts prices and the engine agrees. Conviction HIGH. OPENS R4 →

Coverage
13 European energy markets. One signal language.

Nordic power
Sub-areas

Continental power
Germany · France · Spain
Energy-weather and hydrology per zone.

Gas
TTF · Henry Hub
Cross-commodity weather correlations into both hubs.
Trader, hedger, planner and analyst all read the same call — no translation layer between desks.

Behind DIANA
Meteorological science meets institutional trading.
Dr. Ivan Føre Svegaarden
CEO · Head of Energy Analysis & Weather Risk
PhD in Energy Meteorology · 13+ years applied research and energy trading. Architect of DIANA — the digital fusion of his Weather Regime Model research, trading practice and analyst workflow. Specialises in SRMC–power disconnect analysis, wind-drought dynamics and cross-market weather correlations.
Jan Erik Pedersen
Head of Portfolio Management & Risk
24+ years institutional commodity trading · MSc Finance, NHH. Senior positions at major European energy firms; fund founder and manager. Deep expertise in Nordic, German and French power, plus gas and cross-commodity dynamics.

Markets reward people who see first
Ready when you are.
A 30-minute briefing on how DIANA reads the next six weeks for your book.
TradeWPower AS · Lillehammer, Norway · Since 2016 · Org.nr. 919 948 000