The company is a forward-thinking company that leverages advanced meteorological expertise to navigate the complexities of energy markets, especially under the influence of climate change. Here’s a breakdown of what TradeWpower AS and its founder, Ivan Føre Svegaarden, have to offer:

Experience:

• PhD in Meteorology.
• Over a decade in quantitative energy meteorology
• Hydro production planning
• Spot nomination and water value thinking
• Energy market analysis
• Power trading in Nordic and German markets

Motto: “Together, we do better”.

TradeWpower leverages collaborative efforts with major power market companies in Germany, France, and the Nordic region. We aim to provide superior

• trading,
• hedging,
• and production

weather- and climate-optimized strategies tailored to various market situations.

Additionally, we strive to build knowledge and profitable collaborations with our clients.

TradeWe Service: Bridging Meteorologists, Analysts, and Traders

Navigating weather forecasts and market analyses can be challenging and expensive without expert knowledge. TradeWe simplify this process!

By utilizing advanced property analysis methods, TradeWe removes the guesswork from weather-related business challenges, delivering essential insights.

Whether you’re looking to understand potential weather impacts or manage risks, TradeWe ensures you’re prepared, enabling you to run your business efficiently.

Benefits of TradeWe service

1. Enhanced Decision Making: Leveraging data-driven insights to make more accurate and profitable trading/hedging and production decisions.
2. Risk Mitigation: Employ production/hedging solutions informed by comprehensive climate and weather data to protect against market volatility.
3. Market Adaptability: Quickly adapting to changing weather on short- to mid-term and market conditions to maintain a competitive edge.
4. Lower your costs: Hiring an energy meteorologist and acquiring the necessary analysis tools is costly and risky. Use TradeWe!

TradeWe service

The service offers comprehensive quantitative analyses based on our proprietary Weather Regime Model (WRM), The New Normal analysis, unique insight into Polar Vortex/Jet Stream analysis and company expertise.

This service allows you to provide climate-adjusted strategies that consider various crucial factors, enabling you to make informed and profitable decisions.

The New Normal – analysis of global warming impact on TWH

A comprehensive analysis of the impact of global warming on power markets in the Nordic, German, and French regions.

Are you prepared for what’s coming?

The report highlights trends in temperature, hydro-power precipitation, wind, and solar power, offering surprising insights for analysts and traders.

Changes observed in TWH are explained in detail through topics such as shifts in pressure fields, temperature, wind direction, the Polar Vortex (PV), and Jet Stream interactions.

TradeWe: Quantitative Energy Outlook and Risk Management

The use of analogue years in a changing climate is a topic of ongoing debate. In response, I developed The New Normal, a continuously evolving framework.

• Company research shows that using an ensemble mean or a weight factor for many selected years is unsuitable for predicting power market risks. Therefore, the company uses a selected range of years to reflect upcoming weather outlooks and analyses each year individually to forecast overall power market risk and development.

The WRM model, a key component in our forecasting process, provides insights into short-term forecast developments and persistence (Analysis 3) and plays a crucial role in selecting analogue years and atmospheric settings representative of the upcoming weather (Analysis 2).

Therefore, Analysis 2 is used to forecast possible outcomes for Analysis 3  (WRM+PV/Jet analysis) and to determine whether what we see in forecasts is “unreal and temporary.”

Analysis 2: The large-scale patterns observed in these analogue years offer valuable insights into high-pressure and low-pressure systems, critical weather-forcing mechanisms, PV/Jet configurations, and their influence on teleconnections.

So,

• WRM-Select (most likely outlook),
• WRM-NoGo (not likely to occur),
• FSW/SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming/Final Stratospheric Warming),
• and The New Normal (Analysis 1)

help us understand upcoming weather risks, trends, and extremes.

From spot price risks to future price risks

By analyzing the Temperature, Wind, Solar, Precipitation, Consumption, Inflow, Hydro reservoir fillings and more in WRM-Select and WRM-NoGo analogue years, we can conduct a

• quantitative analysis of likely and unlikely power market TWH outcome.
• This includes simulated hydro reservoir filling and inflow, allowing for a better analysis of water value settings and spot price risk and, thus, future price risks.

As confidence in WRM is lower during the summer, we will need to use analogue years, large-scale flow, and statistical analysis for guidance.

It is safe to do so as many large-scale forcing mechanisms differ significantly each year and can be used to provide a representative outlook.

How it works

The WRM-Select or WRM-NoGo years are selected based on different atmospheric and statistical relationships. We can narrow down representative historical years by identifying the TWH trends and variance per month, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the response or cause of teleconnections (AO/NAO/PNA and more). This helps us to make a more accurate estimate of weather outlooks.

Improved Seasonal Outlook

It is widely recognized that seasonal models often differ significantly from daily updated weather forecasts, primarily because large-scale seasonal models cannot accurately predict the central driving mechanisms that the WRM analysis does.

Therefore, a thorough understanding of the atmospheric setup in WRM-Select, WRM-NoGo, and associated teleconnections (AO/NAO/MJO and more) trend analysis is crucial for anticipating risks in seasonal forecasts vs observed weather patterns and, thus, potential market impacts.

Climate-adapted Energy Market Strategies

The company specializes in developing quantitative methods and tools to handle the changing weather patterns due to global warming.

These tools help in energy meteorology analysis and risk evaluation, lowering trading and hedging risks, aiming to minimize costs and risk.

Future of TradeWpower

DIANA – Digital Intelligent Artificial Numerical Advisor

The companies involved have successfully tested and validated the Weather Risk Management (WRM) system, which will be integrated into a comprehensive Big Data, AI, and ML platform, DIANA.

This innovative system is designed to optimize trading and hedging strategies in response to continuous market developments, enhanced by accurate weather predictions, thorough risk analysis, and improved insights into relative price movements.

DIANA will facilitate trading and hedging strategies on a daily, weekly, and quarterly basis, enabling more agile and qualitative quantitative decision-making.

By surpassing human analytical capabilities and traditional power market analysis tools, DIANA also aims to deliver precise sub-seasonal forecasts and robust overall risk management, ultimately transforming the landscape of trading, hedging and production strategies in the face of evolving market conditions.

DIANA will thus be the ultimate tool for predicting future power market prices and therefore an essential ingredient in the success of Earth Energy Fund.