Solutions
How DIANA fits your desk — in detail.
Six connected reports every morning. Direction, magnitude and HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW conviction for every market and every horizon, W1 to W6. The daily-chain layer that traders, hedgers, production planners and analysts share.
6
Daily reports
13
European markets
5+
Variables / market — growing
W1 → Q
Horizon range
560
Daily calls
01 — The six daily reports
One question per report. One conviction language across all six.
Each report answers a single specific question and hands its output to the next. Six tabs. One signal language. The desk has a complete view by 9:00.
R0
Operational Status
“Did everything land clean this morning?”
What’s in it
Pipeline health, freshness check on every input, RED / DEGRADED / OK status per data feed, run-time stamps for every downstream report.
Edge · Stale data is visible before 9:00, not after a bad trade.
R1
The New Normal
“What should ‘normal’ even mean in today’s climate?”
✓ DIANA analogue select — done
What’s in it
DIANA analog year fit is refreshed daily for every market and variable. Variance, drift, and regime-shift indicators against the moving climate window.
Edge · Trade against the climate you’re actually in — not a frozen 1991-2020 reference that already lags reality by a decade.
R2
Analog Years
“Which past winters, springs or summers match today’s setup?”
What’s in it
Best-matching historical years ranked by atmospheric similarity using variable atmospheric and oceanographic variables based on TradeWpower proprietary research. Realized energy outcomes are attached to every analog.
Edge · Atmospheric similarity, not calendar-distance guesswork. Outcomes already attached to every match.
R3
Hydrology
“Where is the water going — near-term and seasonal?”
What’s in it
Short-term reservoir balance for every Nordic price area plus a 6-month reservoir-fill trajectory. Inflow regime, snowmelt timing, precipitation outlook.
Edge · Short-term balance plus a six-month reservoir-fill view in one place — not a dashboard you have to assemble.
R4
DIANA Weather
“Where do the next six weeks go, per market, per variable?”
What’s in it
Direction and conviction for every market and every horizon, W1 to W6, with forecast-flip detection when the atmosphere is about to pivot. Quarterly outlooks for Q+1 and Q+2.
Edge · +11 to +22 pp over the ECMWF energy forecast at W3 to W6 — the horizons where positions are built.
R5
Trading View
“Where do I actually take risk this week?”
What’s in it
Trade / Lean / Watch flag per market, per variable, per horizon. Driven by the conviction tier from R4 with risk-multiplier hints.
Edge · HIGH-tier hit rate 73% on the 2010–2024 backtest (in-sample, n=8,483).
02 — Coverage in detail
13 European markets × energy weather and hydrology × W1 to Q+2.
Cross-border interconnection flows are modeled under each weather regime — Nordic-DE, FR-DE, FR-ES, IT-FR — and surfaced in R4 wherever they materially shift the supply-demand picture.
03 — Methodology
Atmospheric structure → market state → conviction tier.
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04 — Four desk roles, one signal
Same conviction language across the desk.
Traders, hedgers, production planners, and analysts read the same outlook with the same conviction tag. Meetings get shorter; decisions get faster.
Traders
Sizing & timing
Open R5 in the morning, see where DIANA has conviction, where it disagrees with the forward curve, and where to stay flat. Conviction tiers translate directly to sizing — HIGH warrants the book; LOW earns patience. Spend the day executing an edge, not assembling one.
Hedgers
Position sizing & risk discipline
Hedge ratios scale with conviction, not with whoever shouted last in the morning meeting. HIGH-conviction weeks warrant tighter hedges; LOW-conviction weeks stay flexible. Cost of carry drops because coverage is matched to real risk, not insured uniformly across every week.
Production planners
Weeks & months ahead
Energy-weather and hydrology outlooks from W1 to W6 feed dispatch and maintenance planning. Select weather analogs and reservoir-fill trajectories extend the view 6 months ahead for seasonal and hydro strategy.
Analysts
Deeper research, less legwork
Stop hand-scoring analog years in spreadsheets. DIANA surfaces the best matches with their outcomes already attached and talks back through the AI interface — ask a question, get a researched answer.
05 — Where the edge is widest
Extreme weeks — the regime-change weeks that move books most.
Direction accuracy on weeks where the observed weather anomaly exceeded 1σ. These are the weeks when prices break their range. ECMWF’s ensemble has converged toward climatology by W3; DIANA’s atmospheric pattern-matching keeps an edge of +25 to +40 percentage points from W3 onwards.
Week 4 extreme
+25pp
DIANA 79% · ECMWF 54% on extreme weeks at W4
Week 5 extreme
+35pp
DIANA 86% · ECMWF 50% on extreme weeks at W5
Week 6 extreme
+40pp
DIANA 87% · ECMWF 47% on extreme weeks at W6
Source: DIANA Weather standard backtest 2010–2024 — 50 market × variable targets, 62,511 predictions; head-to-head vs the ECMWF energy forecast where the archive overlaps (≈2,300 comparisons per lead). Both scored against the same observed weather direction. DIANA leg in-sample on its production atlas; EC leg out-of-sample.
06 — Global gas & LNG weather risk
Power markets are local. Gas markets are global.
DIANA tracks the cross-basin weather drivers that move EU TTF through the global LNG balance — Gulf hurricanes that shut US export terminals, US cold outbreaks that freeze off shale production, Asia heat waves that pull cargoes east. Multi-week early warning on the events that decide which side of the Atlantic the next cargo lands.
Hurricane · US LNG export
Gulf landfall risk → cargo loss
A direct Gulf hit halts Sabine Pass, Cameron, Corpus Christi, Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass — the terminals feeding EU TTF. DIANA scores the season risk using variable atmospheric and oceanographic variables based on TradeWpower proprietary research, with a 6-month pre-season lead time.
Output · Season probability of Cat-3+ Gulf landfall, EU recurvature track, terminal-level export risk.
Cold outbreak · US production
Texas freeze-off → demand spike
Permian / Eagle Ford well-head freeze-offs cut US gas supply at the same moment heating demand peaks. DIANA’s cold-pathway gate — combining variable atmospheric and oceanographic variables based on TradeWpower proprietary research — flags Gulf-cold pathways with multi-week lead times.
Output · 2-4 week probability of US Gulf cold outbreak with HH and TTF impact path. Shared US-EU cold gateway flag.
Asia heat · cargo redirect
JKM → TTF arbitrage
Hot Asian summers pull LNG cargoes east at the EU’s expense. DIANA’s Asia-heat seasonal gate — combining variable atmospheric and oceanographic variables based on TradeWpower proprietary research — flags the Asia-heat seasons that re-route cargoes 6 months ahead.
Output · Seasonal Asia heat-wave probability, JKM-TTF spread direction, EU LNG-balance risk.
DIANA’s US Weather-Risk module is built on 45 years of ERA5, scored against US T2m, HDD/CDD and ERCOT cold-event records, IBTrACS hurricane tracks, and validated against major historical TTF moves driven by Gulf storms (Harvey, Ida, Beryl), Texas freezes (Uri, Heather, Fer Jan 2026) and Asia heat seasons.
07 — Engagement
Three ways in. One signal language.
Whether you need full DIANA access, risk advisory, or custom analysis integration — we adapt to how your team works.
Tier 1 · Weather intelligence
Full DIANA access
For desks that want the full daily decision layer.
| → All six daily reports R0–R5 |
| → All 13 markets × full energy weather and hydrology coverage |
| → W1 to W6 + Q+1, Q+2 horizons |
| → Regime transition alerts |
| → Seasonal outlooks (winter cold-risk, summer heat) |
| → AI conversation interface for clarification |
| → Email and Slack delivery options |
Tier 2 · Risk advisory
Direct counsel on extremes
Tier 1 plus direct expertise on high-impact regime transitions.
| → Everything in Tier 1 |
| → Extreme weather positioning calls |
| → Cross-commodity scenario analysis (power ↔ gas ↔ LNG) |
| → Stress-tests under regime-shift scenarios |
| → Phone access for high-impact transitions |
| → Custom briefings on demand |
| → Quarterly portfolio review |
Tier 3 · Analysis partnership
Embedded weather expertise
Tier 2 plus integration into your trading and hedging operations.
| → Everything in Tier 2 |
| → Custom market additions or sub-area splits |
| → Bespoke research on your portfolio’s weather-driven risks |
| → Direct integration into your trading workflow |
| → Embedded analyst expertise alongside your team |
| → API access to underlying signals |
| → Joint development of new market or product views |
Get started
A 30-minute briefing on your book.
We’ll walk through what DIANA reads for the next six weeks across your specific markets and horizons. No deck. Live screens.
Phone
Email