Solutions
How DIANA fits your desk — in detail.
Six connected reports every morning. Direction, magnitude, and HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW conviction for every market and every horizon, W1 to W6. The daily-chain layer that traders, hedgers, production planners, and analysts share.
6
Report chain R0–R5
13
European markets
5+
Variables / market — growing
W1 → Q
Horizon range
560
Daily calls
01 — The six daily reports
One question per report. One conviction language across all six.
Each report answers a single specific question and hands its output to the next. Six tabs. One signal language. The desk has a complete view by 9:00. Each card opens straight into the live app for logged-in clients.
R0
Operational Status
“Did everything land clean this morning?”
What’s in it
Pipeline health and a freshness check on every input — RED / DEGRADED / OK per data feed, run-time stamps for every downstream report, and the source-to-signal architecture behind the daily chain.
Edge · Stale data is visible before 9:00, not after a bad trade.
R1
The New Normal
“What should ‘normal’ even mean in today’s climate?”
+ R1b sub-zones · R1c extremes
What’s in it
Today’s atmospheric regime matched to the analog years that share it, per market and variable — with decade-by-decade storm-track drift and a mean-vs-extremes read on every trend. R1b breaks it to Nordic bidding zones; R1c asks whether the wind & solar fleet still delivers its 1990–2020 normal hours.
Edge · Trade against the climate you’re actually in — not a frozen 1991–2020 reference that already lags reality by a decade.
R2
Analog Years · Select & NoGo
“Which past winters, springs or summers match today’s setup?”
What’s in it
DIANA’s Select / NoGo year classification, ranked by atmospheric similarity with realized energy outcomes attached to every analog — plus how stable that cohort has been across recent runs, and a coherence tier (TRADE-GRADE / PARTIAL / NO EDGE) per market and variable. R2b drills to Nordic sub-zones.
Edge · Atmospheric similarity, not calendar-distance guesswork — with a conviction read on whether the analogs even agree.
R3
Hydro & Fundamentals
“Where do supply and marginal cost actually sit — water, gas, and units?”
What’s in it
The supply-side desk in one report: live Nordic reservoir fill with 20-year seasonal curves and year overlays; snow, melt, groundwater and flood watch; cross-border day-ahead spot for NP/DE/FR/ES with realized wind & solar on a merit-order axis; EU gas-storage refill paths vs the 5-year band (the floor under TTF — and TTF is the marginal cost of gas-fired power); and live nuclear / gas / hydro outages by zone.
Edge · Hydro, gas-to-power, cross-border spot and unit outages in one place — the fundamentals a desk usually rebuilds from five vendors every morning.
R4
DIANA Weather
“Where do the next six weeks go, per market, per variable?”
What’s in it
Direction and HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW conviction for every market and horizon W1 to W6, with forecast-flip detection, a watchdog that confirms or fades the analog cohort, and the per-market TRADE / LEAN / WATCH action table — scored head-to-head against the ECMWF energy forecast with side-by-side maps. Quarterly outlooks for Q+1 and Q+2.
Edge · +22 to +26 pp over the ECMWF energy forecast at W4 and W5 — the horizons where positions are built.
R5
Trading View
“Where do I actually take risk this week?”
In development
What’s coming
A dedicated trade view that consolidates the per-market, per-horizon TRADE / LEAN / WATCH calls with risk-multiplier hints. The underlying conviction-tiered calls already ship in R4 today — R5 brings them into one execution-ready screen.
Today · The HIGH-tier hit rate of 73% (5-year out-of-sample backtest, n=8,439) already drives the R4 action table.
Ask DIANA
Don’t read the report. Ask it.
Ask DIANA about any market, week or driver and get the number, the chart and the reasoning — drawn from the same packets behind R0–R5. The data, in plain English.
● Ask DIANA
Why is NP power bullish in W3?
Week 3 sits under a blocking high — your Select analogs ran ~16% below-normal wind (a wind drought), and the engine agrees. Conviction HIGH. OPENS R4 →
How full is German gas storage?
58% — about +3pp vs the 5-year average and on pace to refill to 90%. That caps TTF, so bearish for gas-fired power. OPENS R3 →
Plain English
Ask the way you’d ask a colleague. No query language, no spreadsheet.
Grounded in the packets
Every answer cites the report and the exact number — nothing invented.
Understand, not just see
The why behind each call in one line — then jump to the full report.
02 — Coverage in detail
13 European markets × energy weather and hydrology × W1 to Q+2.
Cross-border interconnection flows are modeled under each weather regime — Nordic-DE, FR-DE, FR-ES, IT-FR — and surfaced in R3 and R4 wherever they materially shift the supply-demand picture.
03 — Methodology
Atmospheric structure → market state → conviction tier.
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04 — Four desk roles, one signal
Same conviction language across the desk.
Traders, hedgers, production planners, and analysts read the same outlook with the same conviction tag. Meetings get shorter; decisions get faster.
Traders
Sizing & timing
Open R4 in the morning, see where DIANA has conviction, where it disagrees with the forward curve, and where to stay flat. Conviction tiers translate directly to sizing — HIGH warrants the book, LOW earns patience. Spend the day executing an edge, not assembling one.
Hedgers
Position sizing & risk discipline
Hedge ratios scale with conviction, not whoever shouted last in the morning meeting. HIGH-conviction weeks warrant tighter hedges; LOW-conviction weeks stay flexible. Cost of carry drops because coverage is matched to real risk, rather than being uniformly insured every week.
Production planners
Weeks & months ahead
Energy weather, and hydrology outlooks from W1 to W6 feed dispatch and maintenance planning. Select weather analogs and reservoir-fill trajectories extend the view 6 months ahead for seasonal and hydro strategy.
Analysts
Deeper research, less legwork
Stop hand-scoring analog years in spreadsheets. DIANA surfaces best matches with their outcomes already attached and talks back through the AI interface — ask a question, get a researched answer.
05 — Where the edge is widest
Extreme weeks — the regime-change weeks that move books most.
Direction accuracy on weeks where observed weather anomaly exceeded 1σ. These are the weeks when prices break their range. ECMWF’s ensemble has converged on climatology by W3; DIANA’s atmospheric pattern-matching keeps an edge of +37 to +43 percentage points from W3 onwards.
Week 4 extreme
+43pp
DIANA 70% · ECMWF 27% on extreme weeks at W4
Week 5 extreme
+37pp
DIANA 60% · ECMWF 23% on extreme weeks at W5
Week 6 extreme
+41pp
DIANA 62% · ECMWF 20% on extreme weeks at W6
Source: multi-year head-to-head backtest, energy weather across 13 European markets, 2020-2024. Both DIANA and ECMWF scored against the same observed weather direction.
06 — Global gas & LNG weather risk
Power markets are local. Gas markets are global.
DIANA tracks the cross-basin weather drivers that move EU TTF through the global LNG balance — Gulf hurricanes that shut US export terminals, US cold outbreaks that freeze off shale production, Asia heat-waves that pull cargoes east. Multi-week early warning on the events that decide which side of the Atlantic the next cargo lands.
Hurricane · US LNG export
Gulf landfall risk → cargo loss
A direct Gulf hit halts Sabine Pass, Cameron, Corpus Christi, Plaquemines, and Calcasieu Pass — the terminals feeding EU TTF. DIANA scores the season risk using variable atmospheric and oceanography variables based on TradeWpower’s proprietary research, with a 6-month pre-season lead time.
Output · Season probability of Cat-3+ Gulf landfall, EU recurvature track, terminal-level export risk.
Cold outbreak · US production
Texas freeze-off → demand spike
Permian / Eagle Ford well-head freeze-offs cut US gas supply at the same moment heating demand peaks. DIANA’s cold-pathway gate — combining variable atmospheric and oceanographic variables based on TradeWpower’s proprietary research — flags Gulf cold pathways with multi-week lead times.
Output · 2-4 week probability of US Gulf cold outbreak with HH and TTF impact path. Shared US-EU cold gateway flag.
Asia heat · cargo redirect
JKM → TTF arbitrage
Hot Asian summers pull LNG cargoes east at the EU’s expense. DIANA’s Asia-heat seasonal gate — combining variable atmospheric and oceanography variables based on TradeWpower’s proprietary research — flags the Asia-heat seasons that re-route cargoes 6 months ahead.
Output · Seasonal Asia heat-wave probability, JKM-TTF spread direction, EU LNG-balance risk.
DIANA’s US Weather-Risk module is built on 45 years of ERA5, scored against US T2m, HDD/CDD, and ERCOT cold-event records, IBTrACS hurricane tracks, and validated against major historical TTF moves driven by Gulf storms (Harvey, Ida, Beryl), Texas freezes (Uri, Heather, Fern Jan 2026), and Asia heat seasons.
07 — Engagement
Three ways in. One signal language.
Whether you need full DIANA access, risk advisory, or custom analysis integration — we adapt to how your team works.
Tier 1 · Weather intelligence
Full DIANA access
For desks that want the full daily decision layer.
| → All six daily reports R0–R5 |
| → All 13 markets × full energy weather and hydrology coverage |
| → W1 to W6 + Q+1, Q+2 horizons |
| → Regime transition alerts |
| → Seasonal outlooks (winter cold-risk, summer heat) |
| → AI conversation interface for clarification |
| → Email and Slack delivery options |
Tier 2 · Risk advisory
Direct counsel on extremes
Tier 1 plus direct expertise on high-impact regime transitions.
| → Everything in Tier 1 |
| → Extreme weather positioning calls |
| → Cross-commodity scenario analysis (power ↔ gas ↔ LNG) |
| → Stress-tests under regime-shift scenarios |
| → Phone access for high-impact transitions |
| → Custom briefings on demand |
| → Quarterly portfolio review |
Tier 3 · Analysis partnership
Embedded weather expertise
Tier 2 plus integration into your trading and hedging operations.
| → Everything in Tier 2 |
| → Custom market additions or sub-area splits |
| → Bespoke research on your portfolio’s weather-driven risks |
| → Direct integration into your trading workflow |
| → Embedded analyst expertise alongside your team |
| → API access to underlying signals |
| → Joint development of new market or product views |
Get started
A 30-minute briefing on your book.
We’ll walk through what DIANA reads for the next six weeks across your specific markets and horizons. No deck. Live screens.
Phone
Email