Weather-Trade | Trade Weather Power AS

The “Weather-Trading” strategy will be on stable, lasting CDC or WWW periods that have an impact on NC and preferably DEU over 1-3 weeks.…

09
Mar

The “Weather-Trading” strategy will be on stable, lasting CDC or WWW periods that have an impact on NC and preferably DEU over 1-3 weeks.…

07
Mar

The “Weather-Trading” strategy will be on stable lasting CDC or WWW periods that have an impact on NC and preferably DEU over 1-3 weeks.…

04
Mar

The “Weather-Trading” strategy will be on stable lasting CDC or WWW periods that have an impact on NC and preferably DEU over 1-3 weeks.…

02
Mar

The “Weather-Trading” strategy will be on stable lasting CDC or WWW periods that have an impact on NC and preferably DEU over 1-3 weeks.…

02
Mar

(Germany => DEU)

Verified: There is a WWW signal in forecasts that could be stronger into week 9…
But later into week 9 and the start of week 10, there is a CDC risk that can be seen in ens mean => bull support

Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow
- Into week 9 there is bull support and thus this will limit any bearish effect at the start of the week
WRM+PV/Jet+SRA
- There is possible a CDC development showing up later into week 9 forecasts but that’s looks to be temporary
  - Before a stable CDC setup in forecasts, we need to pass Wednesday
  - Thus into the start of week 10 we will most likely see bull weather forecasts development
  - Then the WWW risk kicks in

NC prices
- SYS price is over March and April futures supportive for bull development into the week
- NC is sensitive for WWW weather and 2 weeks solid WWW will lift Hydbal and inflow to levels that will put further pressure on prices
  - But this is not likely to be seen until week 10-12 so up to then there is a bull potential
  - Also, short positions at current NC prices and spread to DEU should be done when both NC and DEU sees a “lasting” WWW setup
DEU prices
- More wind will limit upside on DEU and in the case of WWW setup seen into week 10-12 forecasts DEU will also come down
Spread to DEU
- There is some support on SYS price later week 9 since inflow and temps come down and forecasts could show less WWW to CDC setup again
- But, this looks to be temporary and nothing to go major bull on even if the gap between NC and Germnay supports a bull shift for NC…
- For now, only NC sees above-normal wind but as DEU picks up wind later into March we will see stronger pressure on SYS price in a time with observed + moderate accum WWW forecasts into week 10-12
Fundamental market models
- SYS price vs.

…

28
Feb

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