Category Archives: Weather-Trade

WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

• CWW risk until the weekend, even some hints over the weekend before more stable WDC setup into week 14+

Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Jet

• Normally March-April is not that wet and windy (+/- 5 Twh) per month
• Sum March-April shows that the wet risk is in April
• Even a stable WRM-CWW signal for April does not mean that April will be stable wet, windy and cold but that accumulated can April be wet and windy
• PV supports an outer edge of the normal CWW period but late week 13 and into week 14 WRM-WDC suggest a shift to a dry and calmer outlook
• If PV “survives” WRM-WDC days new solid CWW period is likely

Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

• Predicting stable weather trends in April is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
• Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used
• As for now Mon-Wednesday(Thursday) week 13 has peak CWW forcing
• Into week 14 there is a CWW/WWW risk and it’s not until the start of week 14 we are on safer WDC territory for forecasts

Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

• We will see peak inflow around 1 of April and that could be a bearish surprise since we could see “solid” wet and windy forecasts as well
• Cold temps will lower inflow again and supports water values
• Relatively low-moderate wind in DEU does not support any collapse

NC SYS price vs.

WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

• Into week 13 there looks to be a CWW potential in forecasts as what is seen now
• Thus, the weekend risk is CWW

Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Jet

• Normally March-April is not that wet and windy (+/- 5 Twh) per month
• Sum March-April shows that the wet risk is in April
• Even a stable WRM-CWW signal for April does not mean that April will be stable wet, windy and cold but that accumulated will April be wet and windy
• PV supports an outer edge of the normal CWW period but late week 13 and into week 14 WRM-WDC suggest a shift to a dry and calmer outlook

Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

• Predicting stable weather trends in April is harder and natural variability causes more shifting outlook
• Thus, only in the strongest WRM days should WRM signals be used
• As for now Mon-Wednesday(Thursday) week 13 has peak CWW forcing
• Normally March and April is not that wet and with a Hydbal at a deficit of about -2 TWH a wet period will have limited bearish effect

Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

• A CWW path in April results in colder temps as seen in forecasts
• That supports controlled Hydro production and calm melting
• Thus, a CWW April with current Hydbal is not that bearish for April and modest higher Hydbal will be more bearish further out on the curve
• We need warmer temps to get SYS price down and that is not likely until later into April when the normal-2Dgc is high enough…

NC SYS price vs.

WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

• WRM(e)-CWW effect is seen in the last runs and thus looks to affect forecasts into week 12 and 13
• WRMe-WDC effect looks weaker thus W(C)WW’ish into next week forecasts is likely

Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Jet

• Strong PV, PV core west or over NP, and WRM-CWW signals suggest accumulated W(C)WW and that massive low-pressure can develop and thus we are facing the outer edge of the CWW-statistic
  • => However, observed vs forecasted precip in March shows that models overestimate precip so far
• Its not expected to be stronger observed WWW/CWW until late March and into April limiting the bearish effect of WWW for now

Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

• Next week WRM(e)-CWW + Observed CWW will cause bearish weather pressure not seen for some time
• An  April in CWW mode means colder temps than normal and that limits inflow and supports thermal on the continent
• Thus, the bearish effect of CWW is postponed to months with higher inflow limeting the bearish impact on April

Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

• Inflow is coming up into week 13 and that with CWW forecasts could cause some bearish pressure at current prices
• WInd looks to be higher into next week forecasts as well…

NC SYS price vs.

WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

• WRM(e)-CWW effect is seen in the last runs and thus looks to effect forecasts into week 12 and 13
• WRMe-WDC effect looks weaker thus WWW’ish into next week forecasts is likely

Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Jet

• Strong PV, PV core west, and WRM-CWW signals suggest accumulated W(C)WW and that massive low-pressure can develop and thus we are facing the outer edge of the CWW-statistic
• Thus, March and April could see a surplus of 9-11 Twh precipitation if PV stays west
• However, its not expected to be stronger observed WWW/CWW until late March and into April limiting the bearish effect of WWW for now

Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

• Next week WRM(e)-CWW + Observed WWW will cause bearish weather pressure not seen for some time
• EC opr, control run and ens mean signals shows that bearish weather-thinking looks “safe”

Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

• There is a bearish risk into the week with both observed WWW and also WWW forecasts for NC+DEU, especially into the weekend and into the start of week 13
• This supports higher inflow and hydbal and thus lower water values into late week 12, but now also into week 13

NC SYS price vs.

WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

• WRM(e)-CWW effect is seen in the last runs and thus looks to effect forecasts into week 12 and 13
• WRMe-WDC effect looks weaker thus WWW’ish into next week forecasts is likely

Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Jet

• Strong PV, PV core west, and WRM-CWW signals suggest accumulated W(C)WW and that massive low-pressure can develop and thus we are facing the outer edge of the CWW-statistic
• Thus, March and April could see a surplus of 9-11 Twh precipitation if PV stays west
• However, its not expected to be stronger observed WWW/CWW until late March and into April limiting the bearish effect of WWW for now

Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

• Next week WRM(e)-CWW + Observed WWW will cause bearish weather pressure not seen for some time
• During the week we will see EC ens mean following GFS ens mean so bearish thinking looks “safe”

Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

• There is a bearish risk into the week with both observed WWW and also WWW forecasts
• This supports higher inflow and hydbal and thus lower water values into week 12, but now also into week 13

NC SYS price vs.

WRM(e)+PV/Jet+SRA

• WRM(e)-CWW effect is seen in the last runs and thus looks to effect forecasts into week 11 and 12
• WRMe-WDC effect looks weaker thus WWW’ish into next week forecasts

Statistics – normal vs WRM+PV/Jet

• Strong PV, PV core west, and WRM-CWW signals suggest accumulated CWW and that massive low-pressure can develop and thus we are facing the outer edge of the CWW-statistic
• Thus, March and April could see a surplus of 9-11 Twh precipitation if PV stays west
• However, its not expected to be stronger observed WWW/CWW until late March and into April limiting the bearish effect of WWW for now

Volatility forecasts – “strategy”

• The WRM(e)-WDC effect looks weaker and thus small bearish position over the weekend looks realistic
• Next week WRM(e)-CWW + Observed WWW will cause bearish weather pressure not seen for some time

Hydbal/Inflow/Wind/Temp/Flow

• Into next week there is a bearish risk with both observed WWW and also WWW forecasts
• This supports higher inflow and hydbal and thus lower water values into week 12

NC SYS price vs.