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TradeWPower
Energy-Weather Intelligence
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06 May 2026
DIANA WEATHER
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DIANA Weather — Client Overview
Step 1 of the TradeWPower Trade Cycle
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D
Digital
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I
Intelligent
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A
Artificial
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N
Numerical
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A
Advisor
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15
Years
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The Proprietary Edge
Built on 15 years of research outside the public domain
DIANA is not a re-skin of open-source weather models and not a wrapper on third-party AI trading data sets. It is 15 years of original European energy-weather research — discoveries, relationships and decision rules you will not find in published papers, public APIs or commercial training data. That is the edge.
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Where the trade lives |
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50%
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61%
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67%
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66%
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54%
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61%
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42%
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59%
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36%
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56%
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31%
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57%
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29%
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coin
flip |
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W+0
−6pp
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W+1
+11pp
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W+2
+19pp
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W+3
+22pp
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W+4
+26pp
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W+5
+28pp
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Week 3 · 3 weeks out
27%
ECMWF
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Week 4 · 4 weeks out
23%
ECMWF
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Week 5 · 5 weeks out
20%
ECMWF
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Week 3 · 3 weeks out
70%
DIANA Weather
+43pp vs EC
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Week 4 · 4 weeks out
60%
DIANA Weather
+37pp vs EC
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Week 5 · 5 weeks out
62%
DIANA Weather
+42pp vs EC
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1
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2
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3
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4
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| DIANA Weather | DIANA Price Model | DIANA Markets | DIANA News | |||
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LIVE TODAY |
COMING NEXT |
ON ROADMAP |
ON ROADMAP |
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| Energy-weather outlook | Stack model & curves | Funds & flow impact | News & geopolitics | |||
| W+0 → quarterly | Weather → price translation | Positioning & sentiment | Risk events beyond fundamentals |
A tool that gives you a significantly higher probability of knowing when to enter, when to exit, and how to scale the position. The result: better risk-reward, higher Sharpe ratio. Fewer losses, more winning trades, and larger profit on the trades that work.
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The Edge
Conviction on every call
Every direction is tagged High · Medium · Low. You know when to size up and when to stand down — before the week starts.
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The Edge
Tested against 45 years of outcomes
Not a physics toy. Every forecast is validated against what European markets actually produced — wind, temperature, hydro, solar — across four and a half decades.
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The Edge
Fresh every morning, compounding every day
Yesterday's truth becomes today's edge. The research loop retires signals that fade and promotes signals that emerge — automatically.
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R0
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R1
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R2
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R3
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R4
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R5
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| Status | New Normal | Analogs | Hydro | DIANA | Trade |
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R0
Operational Status
“Did everything land clean this morning?”
Edge · Full transparency on every input and every report. If anything's stale you see it before 9:00, not after a bad trade. |
R1
The New Normal
“What should ‘normal’ even mean in today's climate?”
Edge · Live 35-year baselines — not a frozen 1991-2020 reference that already lags reality by a decade. You trade against the climate you're actually in. |
R2
Analog Years
“Which past winters, springs or summers match today's setup?”
Edge · Best-matching years ranked by atmospheric similarity, with their realised outcomes already attached — not calendar-distance guesswork. |
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R3
Hydrology
“Where is the water going — near-term and seasonal?”
Edge · Short-term balance plus a six-month reservoir-fill trajectory in one view — not a dashboard you have to assemble. |
R4
Multi-Week Outlook
“Where does the next six weeks go, per market, per variable?”
Edge · Direction and conviction for every market and every horizon W+0 to W+6, with forecast-flip detection when the atmosphere is about to pivot. |
R5
Trading View
“Where do I actually take risk this week?”
Edge · Trade / Lean / Watch flags per market, driven by the conviction tier. High-tier hit rate: 73%. |
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A skilled analyst
a handful
drivers tracked in parallel
most of the signal, lost to bandwidth
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DIANA, every morning
107,400
weather-energy relationships scored
distilled into 560 conviction-rated calls
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45+
Years of weather history
Every European winter since 1980, continuously rebuilt.
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13
Power markets covered
Nordic price areas plus Germany, France, Spain.
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4
Energy variables per market
Wind, temperature, hydro precipitation, solar — coupled, not isolated.
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107,400
Weather-energy relationships scored
Every driver, every month, every outcome — pre-computed and ready.
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560
Conviction-rated calls every day
Direction plus High / Medium / Low tier for every market and horizon.
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W+0 → Q
Full horizon range
This week, next week, month-ahead and quarterly outlook — one system.
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It's knowing when we're right — and when we don't know.
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MATH, NOT OPINION
Every number below is measured against 45 years of observed weather. No analyst judgment. No trader selection. No hindsight cherry-picking.
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on the weeks that move prices.
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NORDIC
83%
EXTREME WINDY · WIND
+33pp · 125 wks
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GERMANY
82%
EXTREME WINDY · WIND
+32pp · 125 wks
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FRANCE
79%
EXTREME CALM · WIND
+29pp · 126 wks
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IBERIA
86%
EXTREME CALM · WIND
+36pp · 126 wks
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| MARKET | TEMP | PRECIP | WIND | SOLAR |
| NORDIC | 69% | 66% | 68% | 62% |
| GERMANY | 66% | 65% | 67% | 64% |
| FRANCE | 67% | 66% | 66% | 63% |
| IBERIA | 67% | 64% | 68% | 63% |
| MARKET | TEMP | PRECIP | WIND | SOLAR |
| NORDIC | 76% | 73% | 74% | 67% |
| GERMANY | 72% | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| FRANCE | 71% | 71% | 71% | 70% |
| IBERIA | 69% | 68% | 73% | 68% |
| MARKET | TEMP | PRECIP | WIND | SOLAR |
| NORDIC | 80% | 76% | 78% | 69% |
| GERMANY | 76% | 75% | 75% | 72% |
| FRANCE | 76% | 77% | 75% | 71% |
| IBERIA | 72% | 71% | 77% | 72% |
| MARKET | TEMP | PRECIP | WIND | SOLAR |
| NORDIC | 83% | 82% | 81% | 74% |
| GERMANY | 82% | 78% | 82% | 76% |
| FRANCE | 82% | 84% | 79% | 75% |
| IBERIA | 78% | 74% | 84% | 75% |
| LEAD | N WEEKS | DIANA HIT % | vs CHANCE |
| W+0 | 10,496 | 66.5% | +16.5pp |
| W+1 | 10,344 | 64.6% | +14.6pp |
| W+2 | 10,447 | 65.7% | +15.7pp |
| W+3 | 10,446 | 66.0% | +16.0pp |
| W+4 | 10,298 | 68.3% | +18.3pp |
| W+5 | 10,394 | 67.5% | +17.5pp |
| LEAD | N | DIANA | ECMWF EC | v7 − EC |
| W+0 | 2,401 | 61.2% | 66.9% | -5.7pp |
| W+1 | 2,268 | 65.5% | 54.1% | +11.4pp |
| W+2 | 2,339 | 60.6% | 41.5% | +19.1pp |
| W+3 | 2,335 | 58.8% | 36.4% | +22.4pp |
| W+4 | 2,268 | 56.5% | 30.6% | +25.9pp |
| W+5 | 2,263 | 57.1% | 29.3% | +27.8pp |
| LEAD | N | DIANA | ECMWF EC | v7 − EC |
| W+0 | 435 | 72.6% | 78.4% | -5.8pp |
| W+1 | 536 | 79.3% | 61.6% | +17.7pp |
| W+2 | 562 | 66.4% | 33.3% | +33.1pp |
| W+3 | 756 | 70.5% | 27.1% | +43.4pp |
| W+4 | 944 | 60.3% | 22.9% | +37.4pp |
| W+5 | 1,031 | 61.8% | 20.3% | +41.5pp |
| LEAD | DIANA | ECMWF EC | Δ Skill | |
| W+0 | — | +0.22 | +0.34 | -0.12 |
| W+1 | — | +0.31 | +0.08 | +0.23 |
| W+2 | — | +0.21 | -0.17 | +0.38 |
| W+3 | — | +0.18 | -0.27 | +0.45 |
| W+4 | — | +0.13 | -0.39 | +0.52 |
| W+5 | — | +0.14 | -0.41 | +0.56 |
Flip weeks usually arrive in one of two shapes: extreme cold and calm (strong blocking, heating demand and no renewables at once) or a sharp shift into unseen wet-and-windy regimes (storm track drops south, hydro and wind swing above normal together). Both break positions, and both trigger massive stop losses and margin calls. Once a flip week hits, the market can take many weeks to re-settle — spreads widen, liquidity thins, and every position carries extra risk until the new regime is priced in. Seeing them early isn’t a nice-to-have; it’s what keeps the desk in the game.
And it isn’t only European weather. DIANA also reads US weather risk — hurricanes, Gulf cold snaps, cross-Atlantic pattern shifts — that moves TTF through global LNG supply. When US production is disrupted, cargoes re-route, European gas prices move, and power follows. One atmospheric picture, both sides of the Atlantic.
The grids above are measured precisely on these weeks. That’s where P&L is made and lost, and that’s the weeks DIANA is built to call before they hit.
Every outlook carries a conviction tier — High, Medium or Low — tested against five years of out-of-sample history. The hit rate rises sharply with conviction, which is exactly what a desk needs: size up on High, lean on Medium, stand down on Low.
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72%
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65%
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61%
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HIGH
Trade-grade conviction
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MEDIUM
Lean, don't commit hard
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LOW
Watch and wait
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FLIP CAPTURE
A DIANA EDGE badge fires when DIANA and the forecast part ways on direction. Those are the weeks where the consensus is about to move — and the desk that sees it first wins.
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EXTREME REGIMES
Trapped-low winters, stretched vortex springs, dry blocking summers — these are the windows where renewables swing hardest and prices break their range. DIANA names them early.
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SIZED BY CONVICTION
A High call earns more balance-sheet; a Low call earns patience. The spread between tiers is the point — DIANA tells the desk which is which before the move, not after.
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WEEK 0
EC owns the nowcast — fresh atmospheric initialization gives it a real advantage on Wind / Solar at D+1..D+7. DIANA uses EC’s forecast as an input here, then takes over from Week 1 onwards.
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WEEK 2–3
ECMWF skill drops sharply. DIANA’s 45-year regime atlas holds its edge — this is where the extra hit rate lives, and where most of the P&L opportunity sits.
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WEEK 4–6 & QUARTERLY
ECMWF ensemble mean collapses toward climatology. DIANA keeps direction through analog matching and long-range atmospheric signals — the horizon where public forecasts stop being useful.
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Weather sets the week.
That’s where the edge lives. SRMC tells you where price should sit; weather tells you where it’s actually going to sit. The edge is knowing which week the regime will flip — from wet-and-windy to blocked-and-dry, from calm to storm. That is what DIANA does.
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Observe
Yesterday’s data
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Compare
Forecast vs reality
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Refine
Adjust & verify
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Deliver
Today’s outlook
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TradeWPower Research Loop · Every Day
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Fewer losing weeks
Low-conviction weeks are flagged before the desk commits. Avoidable drawdowns become visible, not just explainable in hindsight.
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Sharper winning weeks
High-conviction calls carry more size with more certainty — the desk presses when the regime backs it, not when nerve allows.
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One team, one view
Traders, hedgers, production and research argue about what to do, not whose forecast is right. Meetings get shorter; decisions get faster.
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Fewer hires needed
The method is in the platform, not in one senior analyst's head. New traders are productive in days, and the team scales without doubling headcount.
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Traders
Sizing & timing
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DIANA
ONE SIGNAL
delivered to every seat,
every morning |
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Planners
Dispatch & maintenance
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Hedgers
Ratios & cover
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Analysts
Research & review
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Traders
Morning Prep → Sized Trades
No more rebuilding a view from scratch each day. Open R5, see where DIANA has conviction, where it disagrees with the forward curve, and where to stay flat. Conviction tiers translate directly to sizing — High warrants the book, Low earns patience. The trader spends the day executing an edge, not assembling one.
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Hedgers
Position Sizing → Risk Discipline
Hedge ratios scale with conviction, not with whoever shouted last in the morning meeting. High-conviction weeks warrant tighter hedges; Low-conviction weeks stay flexible. Cost of carry drops because coverage is matched to real risk, not insured uniformly across every week.
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Production Planners
Weeks & Months Ahead
Wind, hydro and solar outlooks from W+0 to W+6 feed dispatch and maintenance planning. Select weather analogs and reservoir-fill trajectories extend the view 6 months ahead for seasonal and hydro strategy. The team plans against a single forward view that the trading desk already trusts.
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Analysts
Deeper Research, Less Legwork
Stop hand-scoring analog years in spreadsheets. DIANA surfaces the best matches with their outcomes already attached and talks back through the AI interface — ask a question, get a researched answer. Analyst time moves from data assembly to the judgment calls only a human can make.
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BEFORE
Many tools, many silos
Conflicting signals · Larger team · Higher cost
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CONSOLIDATE
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AFTER
One system, one truth
DIANA
ONE PLATFORM · ONE TEAM
Weather + Fundamentals
Analytics + Hydrology Seasonal + Research
Price Model & Market Layer coming
Same signal · Aligned team · Lower cost
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Clearer communication
Trader, hedger and planner all look at the same outlook with the same conviction tag. No more meetings to reconcile whose forecast is right.
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Easier hiring
New traders are productive in days, not months. The method is in the platform, not in one senior analyst's head.
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Leaner team, lower cost
Fewer overlapping tools to license. Fewer full-time hires to cover weather, fundamentals and analytics separately. Margin that stays with the desk.
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One platform, all aspects
DIANA Weather today. Price and market layers coming. The full decision chain, without bolting a fifth vendor on top.
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Nobody else has built this.
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PHASE 1 · NOW RUNNING
The hard part is done
The foundation works. Every day it runs is another day of proof. 45 years of weather, 13 power markets, stratosphere-to-surface regime matching, conviction tiers that survive out-of-sample testing. This is the unique thing. No one else in European power has the atlas and the calibration layer we have.
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PHASE 2 · BUILDING
Scale the engine, expand the map
More data, more research, more knowledge. With the lessons that come from running Phase 1 daily, DIANA scales into more markets and more horizons — weather-driven risk wherever renewables set the price. The engine gets sharper every year it runs, and hit rates compound as the knowledge base grows.
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SEQUENCING
Why now, not yet
Phase 2 requires Phase 1 to be stable first. You can’t scale a model until you understand where it wins and where it misses. That’s what today’s daily runs are producing — a stream of calibration data that makes the next DIANA possible. Running this version is the research that funds the next.
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PHASE 1 · NOW RUNNING
DIANA v1
European power · 45 yrs data
13 markets · stratosphere-to-surface
daily calls with calibrated conviction
tens of thousands of backtested calls
— the unique thing nobody else has built —
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SCALES INTO
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with more data
more research more knowledge |
PHASE 2 · BUILDING
DIANA v2
more data · more research · more knowledge
more markets · more horizons
pattern discovery at a wider scale
hit rates that compound yearly
— built on the lessons Phase 1 is writing —
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