Risk for Hydbal surplus of about 24-34 Twh in Nordic hydro areas

The massive Warm, Wet and Windy weather seen over the Nordic during December 2013 resulted in a surplus of about +18 Twh precipitation for hydro areas. After a month of strong WWW regime weather changed and January 2014 was dry and cold. Similar atmospheric setup as seen during December 2013 has been seen in GFS and EC models the last week. But, the lastest GFS ens mean shows normalization of wind and precipitation into week 2 in line with trends seen in EC46 (weekly). If that is the case then the downside risk is soon low. However, if GFS and EC46 fail and if the massive WWW weather continuous throughout March as the CFSV2 seasonal show we could end up with a Nordic hydbal (HPR) surplus of 24-34 (28-38 – 90%) TWH before the spring kicks in.

TradeWpower’s “TradeWe” service keeps you updated on:

– when weather regimes changes

– the persistence of weather regimes

– the risk for an SSW and if it will affect NC-EU and not just USA…

Eikon – Refinitiv: France energy weather = Warm, Wet and Windy but with a calmer and normal ending. Contact the company to get new insight into Weather Risk Management.
Eikon – Refinitiv: Nordic energy weather = Warm, Wet and Windy but with a calmer and normal ending. Contact the company to get new insight into Weather Risk Management.