Many have to adjust their understanding of how wind investments are affecting the Nordic power market. Water values are now at 1.5 Euro during moderate inflow and with relatively high wind. Yes, hydbal is extreme but 1 Euro is also that…What about next year when we have 1000’s of MW more wind into the NC system? In case of massive inflow and relatively high wind parts of June and most of July and August, system price will be seen at below 3-4 Euro. Any cable outage and NO is down at 1 Euro level, N-SE can hold SYS price under pressure into September… This is not taken into consideration or was predicted by any analysis when everyone went bull on wind power investments. When 1 of January 2021 is seen with a hydbal in surplus of 10-15 Twh we need an upgraded “Beast from the east” to “Godzilla from the east” in order to get hydbal below normal levels. The risk for that is low… Wind will win this fight and hydro producers (many Sweedish and Norwegian counties) will see hard times. Then add Covid19, trade war risk, oversupply in thermal power, low/negative continental prices and risk of lasting recession…
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