Shifting Wind Patterns and Energy Market Implications

Executive Summary

TradeWpower’s comprehensive research titled “The New Normal” reveals concerning trends in wind patterns across Europe, with significant implications for energy markets through 2030. Their Weather Regime Model (WRM) indicates a fundamental shift toward calmer wind conditions, creating substantial challenges for renewable energy production and increasing dependence on traditional energy sources. This analysis explores these findings and their potential market impacts.

Climate Pattern Shifts

TradeWpower’s research identifies 2024-2025 as “low-pressure years” resulting in “surprisingly low” wind generation. This means that years expected to be windy are failing to produce anticipated wind levels as the calm trend becomes more pronounced with increased blocking high-pressure systems. These blocking highs are causing “low-pressure years” to be unexpectedly calm. As actual “calm years” emerge towards 2030, unprecedented calm periods are expected to occur, further pressuring gas and LNG markets. There is also an increased risk of 3-4 consecutive “calm years” creating an accumulated burden of significant underperformance in both hydro and wind power generation, driving unprecedented demand for gas, LNG, and coal.

More significantly, their Weather Regime Model demonstrates that climate change is fundamentally altering established patterns:

• Global warming is modifying the polar vortex and jet stream behavior
• The meridional temperature gradient is changing, affecting weather stability
• “Windy years” are becoming progressively less windy
• Calm periods are becoming more pronounced and extended

These shifts suggest the emergence of a “calm year” period extending toward 2030, characterized by unprecedented periods of wind scarcity across key European energy markets.

European Energy Market Vulnerability

The research highlights critical vulnerabilities in European energy planning:

• EU dependence on gas and LNG will persist substantially longer than current projections anticipate. This vulnerability is amplified by the energy and power market’s increased sensitivity to low wind conditions now that LNG forms a major component of the EU gas supply following the reduction of Russian pipeline gas.
• The accelerated decommissioning of baseload power sources (coal, lignite, and nuclear) is misaligned with emerging climate realities. Research indicates that calm wind scenarios such as Dunkelflaute events (periods of minimal solar and wind generation) will become far more frequent than currently understood, introducing significant risk for future market energy and power price adjustments.
• Dominant high-pressure systems will create dual challenges of wind scarcity and drought conditions, even in Scandinavia. Current statistics present conflicting signals, suggesting that Scandinavia is becoming wetter and moderately windier as low-pressure systems are pushed toward the region while the EU experiences dry and calm conditions by blocking high-pressures. However, TradeWpower research indicates that as high-pressure systems over the EU expand, low-pressure systems will be more frequently “pushed” away from Southern Scandinavia.
• These factors will create significant upward price pressure on gas and LNG markets through increased demand, and hydro producers will face “unseen” challenges in their planning

Scandinavian Hydropower Concerns 2025

The analysis points to specific regional impacts in Scandinavia:

• South Norway faces potential severe reservoir deficits following snowmelt seasons, and there is some hope of control in the north, even though a few historical weather years show that’s likely
• Winter precipitation patterns changed dramatically as high-pressure systems over continental Europe pushed low-pressure systems northward, making the NO4 region experience record wet and windy conditions. Thus, Northern Scandinavia (particularly western regions) experienced unusually wet and windy conditions
• Snow accumulation in lowlands in SE1-2-3 regions and NO1-2-3-5 is alarmingly low, while high-altitude areas in SE1-2 and NO4 are strong, but indications suggest levels below market expectations

Market Implications

TradeWpower’s assessment indicates these developments will have profound market consequences:

• Current market participants are largely unprepared for these emerging risks becoming more common towards 2030
• Traditional analysis tools and forecasting methods fail to capture these evolving climate dynamics. Their statistical models based on 30-40 years of historical data suggest a wet and windy outlook for Scandinavia, but when the global warming “atmospheric effect” intensifies, surprising shifts in wind and precipitation distribution will emerge
• The full impact of these changes will become increasingly apparent between 2027 and 2028. This timeline coincides with Scandinavian consumption increasing due to the green energy transition, while the beneficial effects of wet and windy conditions in northern and western regions will diminish as consumption rises
• Energy producers and market participants will face forced adjustments to risk profiles, production planning strategies, and investment approaches

Recent Evidence of Wind Underperformance

Recent data confirms TradeWpower’s predictions about reduced wind performance:

• Wind power output across Europe declined by more than 16% year-over-year during the November 2024 to February 2025 period
• German wind speeds specifically decreased by approximately 12% in March 2025 compared to the previous year
• Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance reported that German wind levels remained below the 10-year average for 38 consecutive days until March 21, 2025
• This prolonged period of low wind resulted in German wind turbines generating their lowest daily output since 2016

Historical Context and Evolving Understanding

Until approximately 2017-2018, calmer wind patterns were considered unlikely or poorly understood as a probable trend. However, this understanding has gradually evolved, becoming more integrated into decision-making processes. Despite this progress, the overall market has failed to adjust adequately for this reality. Several factors have contributed to this blind spot, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the energy crisis with its associated demand destruction and reduction, and intermittent “wet and windy years.” The full implications of this oversight will become increasingly apparent as we approach 2030.

Documented Impact on Gas Consumption

The consequences of these wind pattern changes are already manifesting in European energy markets:

• Lower wind power generation alone accounted for almost one-third of incremental gas demand in Europe since November 2024
• European gas demand increased by 10% year-over-year through November to February, with reduced wind speeds identified as the primary driver
• Gas consumption in the power sector increased by almost 30% compared to the same period of the previous year
• Wind deficits boosted reliance on gas-fired generation, which increased 51% in February year-on-year

Storage and Supply Chain Risks

These patterns create significant challenges for European energy infrastructure:

• Europe may require up to an additional 250 LNG cargoes in 2025, costing at least $11 billion to refill depleted gas stores
• In a worst-case scenario, European gas reserves could be only 30% full by the end of winter 2024-25
• Attracting an additional 250-350 LNG cargoes compared to the previous year will be “critical to refilling storage over the summer”
• Possible heat waves and persistent calm wind in Q2 and Q3 2025 will add further pressure on refilling targets

Long-Term Climate Projections Gaining Recognition

Research from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre aligns with TradeWpower’s analysis:

• Projections show “a robust increase in calm days… almost everywhere” in Europe with continued global warming
• This increase in calm days (wind speeds below 3.4 m/s) is projected to be “more pronounced especially in central-western and eastern Europe”

This research substantiates TradeWpower’s conclusion that a fundamental reassessment of European energy transition timelines and strategies is necessary to address the emerging “The New Normal” in wind patterns and their cascading effects on energy markets.