Nordic power: High risk for a market collapse

The GFS Opr is not unlikely forecasts and the massive strong Atlantic lows will come back causing significant precipitations towards February. But forecasts are shifting according to the Weather Regime model (WRM), that shows the path of the Polar Vortex (PV), which affects GWh in forecasts (Eikon, Wattsight, Nena…). Thus, GFS00 opr may not be seen until into next week but it’s not unlikely to see such levels in forecasts toward February. As for now, I can’t find any evidence that the accumulated weather through March will turn to even normal levels.

You should discuss the following with your team:

  1. If GFS opr shows the path of energy forecasts inflow and unregulated hydro production will be high

  2. High wind in NC and DE will force hydro producers to lower their water values to get their reservoir down before spring – and spring is coming early this year

  3. As seen last week the hydro producer’s in NO and SE couldn’t lower their reservoirs given the high wind, unregulated production and low continental prices (NVEEF)

  4. At the middle of February with continuous WWW forecasts, some hydro dominate areas as NO1 (which takes a long time to get down to levels before spring flood) will see “problems” to get the water out

  5. In case of massive WWW until the middle of March and windy prices down to 5-7 Euro will be seen – NC must lower prices below the Continent to turn the flow

  6. Is there any bullish signal for the continental prices for Q1-3?…

  7. NO1-2 and SE2-3 is expected to get more precipitation ahead

Simple linear test: Follow the last week reservoirs trend 2 more weeks and then add 2 weeks with similar WWW forecasts as seen in GFS00:

GFS00 Opr – Source: Eikon Refinitiv

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Want to learn more about the Polar Vortex (PV), Jet Stream and how it affects weather read this:

  • Why do I talk about PV = Polar Vortex?

  • Well, this can happen to EU as it took place in USA/Cannada 2019 = PV made that!

  • Jet stream = Generate low pressures = strong jet over the Nordic during winter = massive wet, windy and warm winters as seen lately.

  • The Polar Vortex (PV) guides the Jet Stream = The PV guides the low pressures over NC/EU 

  • An SSW disrupt the polar vortex (PV) = disrupt the jet stream = risk for more cold-calm-stable Hi-pressure = risk for colder stable winter weather over Nordic/EU