Comments to the main analysis 12.01.2020

High risk for a turn to stronger NC-WWW and warmer and windier FR+DE

Comments (SC)

  • No evidence is seen for a shift in the weather regime that started prior to Christmas

  • The forecasts during the weekend are in line with expectations. Mostly Warm, Wet and Windy (WWW) for NC and some Cold, Dry and Calm (CDC) trend for FR, DE trapped between NC+FR weather pattern

  • WRM+PV is running the show and Synoptic Confirmation (SC) confirms that the forecasts develop according to WRM+PV = WRM+PV show the path during the following weeks

  • FR+DE: There are no strong solid indications that FR+DE will see a stable cold, dry and calm trend at endings of forecasts and thus volatility is still expected before they turn more WWW towards the weekend

Main expectations for the next 14 days

Weather Regime Model (WRM)

  • WWW, with a short period indicating less WWW during the weekend (week 3) before a turn to WWW again

  • NC: No CDC levels are seen strong enough to cause solid CDC forecasts or even normal levels

  • During the coming weekend, WRM-CDC days will only dampen the WWW forecasts relative to what is seen on Friday for FR and DE, in less degree for NC

Polar Vortex (PV)

  • For NC the polar vortex is mostly WWW, but more volatile PV given stretch structure = periodic less intense WWW for NC and some PV-CDC days especially for FR, partly DE can take place

  • But, PV-Gr is expected to turn stronger = more PV-WWW forcing towards the weekend = wet, windy and warm forecasts for all – but in less degree for FR

Synoptic Risk Analysis (SRA) week 3

  • Around 18-20 January will be a test for the persistence of the WWW trend into February. In case of the weak effect of the WRM to dampen forecasts these days then significant WWW forecasts are expected towards the end of February

  • PV-Greenland is expected to intensify and risk for PV-Core to turn to N-Greenland = stronger PV-WWW forcing = more intense lows and more Gwh-precipitation and wind into DE+FR

  • Towards and into February forecasts will show more precipitation into NO1, NO2, SE2 and SE3

  • Strong wind over several days both in DE+FR can be seen in the forecasts later in week 3, especially later into week 4

Synoptic Risk Analysis (SRA) week 4

  • Week 4 can start less WWW and some new CDC indications for DE+FR at endings of forecasts  – but only short-lived forecast-phenomenon (about 1 week period) not realistic to take place as things are now

Long term – weather strategy:

  • No CDC is seen anywhere so believing in bull weather ahead is an extreme risk

  • Only an SSW can turn the weather pattern we are seeing now and that has, for now, a low probability (15-30%)

  • EC46 is expected to turn more WWW into the week

Market intel:

  • I have talked to other meteorologists (Twitter and more), and all discussed the risk for a modest turn to less WWW and some days of CDC risk, mostly into FR+DE and in less degree for NC (see now in forecasts)

  • All discuss that without an SSW the rest of winter will be strong WWW for NC but more spread for FR+DE

  • Montel.no: Comments from analyst-traders seeing further downside risk for gas, coal but in less degree CO2

Futures NC:

  • Any bull “weather-correction” on less WWW weather for DE+FR during the early start of the week is most likely short-lived since DE+FR weather will turn more WWW again

  • There is a high risk that March-June futures my plumb to new lows given the last day’s spot prices, water values and an upcoming intense WWW (also more for FR+DE), with a significant increase in Nordic Hydbal

  • In case of continuous WWW throughout February, with high wind over FR+DE and significant NC-inflow (unregulated) and with a Hydbal in surplus of >28 TWh a continuous strong pressure on spot prices will take place until the weather turns CDC or normal

  • In order to push hydro reserves down before a massive spring flood, the hydro producers must fight with significantly increased wind production, early high unregulated production and strong WWW weather = we don’t know the downside risk since the “new” Nordic power market seems more sensitive to WWW weather = believing that we have seen the “bottom” soon is high risk

  • High risk for more precipitation into NO1, NO2, SE2, SE3 also at lower heights in SE = more pressure on spot price and futures

  • NO1 with high levels of reservoirs can – if WWW continuous into March – have “problem” getting their reservoir down to unnormal low levels given massive snowpack can build up…

  • Many discuss that it is still downside risk for gas, coal and carbon in case of a windy and warm late winter and spring – that will pull DE down and NC even further down in order to turn the flow form NC to DE…

 

Weather maps

Last EC ens mean ends with low-pressure anomaly over NC. Some modest Hi-pressure over C-EU. The strong Atlantic low will keep pushing warm air masses over NC. Source figure: MetDesk

 

Absolutely no signs of SSW = high risk for stable WWW into February… Source figure: MetDesk

 

PV keeps easterly position = wet days over NC and windy, but not that extreme Gwh-precip per days given PV-Gr and PV-Nc arms. When PV-Core turns back to N-Greenland risk for massive precip lows over south NC and middle SE and more wind into DE+FR. Source figure: MetDesk