Forecasted Nordic Hydbal (HPR) may reach >50 TWH:

A high risk that forecasted Nordic Hydbal (HPR) reaches surplus >50 TWH:

  • End of January:          About 34 Twh

  • Middle of February:    About 42 Twh

  • End of February         >50 Twh

If the weather pattern persists into March that is not unrealistic.

  • The less warm, wet and windy ending seen in some forecast will most likely fade off, again…

  • For now, I can’t see anything anywhere that can stop this weather pattern up to the middle of February

Fundamental market models from the leading market players:

  • Don’t tune your strategies and investments on any price models from leading market players as things are now

  • They don’t see the downside and will keep running after the market, again…

Weather risk:

  • Some massive 4-6 Twh lows above normal per day can hit NC the following weeks

  • Inflow towards February and further on up to 1-3 TWh per day can be seen

  • Then add high wind in FR+DE+NC

  • And at the same time add a significant increase in snowpack above 800 meters

  • And more precipitation in NO 1-2, SE 2-3

The sensitivity of the “new” Nordic power system and how it is affected by “energy-climate changes” is still unknown.

Energy-climate changes

  • The new energy-climate changes are not linear and will knock out the markets more often

  • Research shows that we have to get used to massive persistent weather systems – the effect on the energy systems are not well documented

  • More renewables and the new energy-climate will force through new thinking and risk management

It is a paradox that Hydro producers are investing in wind…

Weather Risk Management

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  • TradeWpower support decision-makers across the Nordic and European energy markets with Weather Risk Management that improves profit and prevent unnecessary losses

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Source figure: MetDesk