A high risk that forecasted Nordic Hydbal (HPR) reaches surplus >50 TWH:
End of January: About 34 Twh
Middle of February: About 42 Twh
End of February >50 Twh
If the weather pattern persists into March that is not unrealistic.
The less warm, wet and windy ending seen in some forecast will most likely fade off, again…
For now, I can’t see anything anywhere that can stop this weather pattern up to the middle of February
Fundamental market models from the leading market players:
Don’t tune your strategies and investments on any price models from leading market players as things are now
They don’t see the downside and will keep running after the market, again…
Some massive 4-6 Twh lows above normal per day can hit NC the following weeks
Inflow towards February and further on up to 1-3 TWh per day can be seen
Then add high wind in FR+DE+NC
And at the same time add a significant increase in snowpack above 800 meters
And more precipitation in NO 1-2, SE 2-3
The sensitivity of the “new” Nordic power system and how it is affected by “energy-climate changes” is still unknown.
The new energy-climate changes are not linear and will knock out the markets more often
Research shows that we have to get used to massive persistent weather systems – the effect on the energy systems are not well documented
More renewables and the new energy-climate will force through new thinking and risk management
It is a paradox that Hydro producers are investing in wind…
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